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What is red teaming Climate Etc. Judith Curry. Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a red team to debate climate science. What exactly is red teaming, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate science and for policy makers Reactions to proposed climate red team. Some analyses of Pruitts proposal from the media Arguably the most interesting article on this comes from Joseph Majkut of the Niskanen Center Can a Red Team Exorcise the Climate Debate Excerpts On the contrary, both climate scientists and advocates should see opportunity in a red team exercise. Delphi Pause Program' title='Delphi Pause Program' />A properly done red team exercise could both elevate the status of climate science in the Trump administration and among Republicans, and reset how we approach climate science as a nation. Many climate skeptics suspect that the climate science community is caught up in political conformity that leans toward alarmism, and that alternative ideas about the causes and risks of climate change cannot break through peer review. Red teaming is designed to address such a situation. As Micah Zenko writes in his authoritative book Red Team in institutions that are supposed to police themselves through internal processes, like the scientific community with peer review, even longtime analysts are susceptible to adopting the assumptions and biases of the institutions and subjects they are supposed to be objectively studying. Whether climate science is caught in such a morass or not, many people in power think that it is. We have to find a way to unstick that belief if the climate debate is to move forward. A red team exercise is a fine way to do it. The strongest red team exercises have buy in from all parties and give the red team resources to perform original analysis along a set of critical questions. They also ensure that the team has the right mixture of expertise so that its results will be considered credible to the institution they are looking to influence in this case, climate science. Lastly, they give the red team sufficient independence to come to original and creative conclusions. What is red teaming There are many pitfalls in establishing and conducting a successful and useful red team exercise. Duz6CrLIoJQ/WSLhLHYvlaI/AAAAAAAAzaI/Qdyj5O9INeUijr15PNw_J5hqIJ46qtdkACLcB/s1600/p1.png' alt='Delphi Pause Program' title='Delphi Pause Program' />To avoid these pitfalls, the relevant policy makers, potential scientist participants, and journalists should have an open discussion on the objectives and guidelines. And not to mention actually learn something from experts on red teaming. There is an authoritative book on this topic by Micah Zenko entitled Red Team How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy. I havent read it yet, but I just purchased it. Text from an amazon. DirectXDelphiWebcamCapture.png' alt='Delphi Pause Program' title='Delphi Pause Program' />In reading this book an aspect of the subject which really stood out to me was that no matter your position of authority or social status, humility and critical thinking often go hand in hand, and that pride and its companion arrogance are often rewarded by a special kind of blindness. A very interesting and useful online resource for red teaming is provided by the Red Team Journal. Red Team Journal was founded in 1. The site has influenced a generation of red teamers to think systematically and creatively about their assumptions, challenges, adversaries, and competitors. Excerpts from the Red Team Journal About page Defined loosely, red teaming is the practice of viewing a problem from an adversary or competitors perspective. The goal of most red teams is to enhance decision making, either by specifying the adversarys preferences and strategies or by simply acting as a devils advocate. Alternative analysis is the superclass of techniques of which red teaming may be considered a member. As with red teaming, these techniques are designed to help debias thinking, enhance decision making, and avoid surprise. According to Fishbein and Treverton, alternative analysis seeks to help analysts and policy makers stretch their thinking through structured techniques that challenge underlying assumptions and broaden the range of possible outcomes considered. They further clarify the term by specifying that Alternative analysis includes techniques to challenge analytic assumptions e. 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By Judith Curry Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a red team to debate climate science. What exactly is red teaming, and. A voicemail system also known as voice message or voice bank is a computerbased system that allows users and subscribers to exchange personal voice messages to. I am debugging my application, migrating from Delphi XE2 to XE10 Seattle. The exe uses a DLL that crashes Madshi is activated So I start debugging the. Welcome to the City of Delphi, Indiana. Delphi was chosen as a stellar community in 2012. Explore our storied past and stellar future. An overconfident or culturally biased analyst or team will not benefit as much from these approaches as might an analyst or team that employs actively open minded thinking. Excerpts from Red teaming a balanced view Clearly, not every red team is created equal. Superior red teams, for example, tend to. View the problem of interest from a systems perspective Shed the cultural biases of the decision maker and, as appropriate, adopt the cultural perspective of the adversary or competitor Employ a multidisciplinary range of skills, talents, and methods Understand how things work in the real world Avoid absolute and objective explanations of behaviors, preferences, and events Question everything to include both their clients and themselves and. Break the rules. One can argue that the best red teamers are born, not trained. It seems that some people have an instinctive ability to red team, while othersdespite extensive trainingcan never escape the secure but confining pen of convention. In fact, this is perhaps the key characteristic of the inferior red team an inability or unwillingness to color outside the lines. Inferior red teams also tend to. Accept without question the clients description of the problem Embrace the biases inherent in their own values and culture Adopt the first or most easily discerned answer Defer to reputation and status and. Delirium By Lauren Oliver Pdf here. Know it all. The members of an inferior red team might include deferential technocrats and self important experts. Resistance. Not every decision maker wants a red team or at least a candid red team. A red team can undermine a decision makers preferred strategies or call into question his or her choices, policies, and intentions. It takes a decision maker of solid integrity to sponsor, empower, and manage a superior red team. That said, a thoughtful decision maker also balances the costs and benefits of red teaming with the costs and benefits of advocacy, compromise, and consensus building. It is also important to note that not all resistance is harmful it can represent valid interests, concerns, and risks of which the red team is simply unaware. To Red Team or Not to Red Team. Nearly everyone can benefit from some form or degree of red teaming. Whether the red team is a highly structured, formal unit or a self appointed devils advocate, almost every idea, concept, design, or plan benefits from healthy opposition and testing. Too much red teaming, however, can be as harmful as too little. No one wants a relentless contrarian gumming up every phase of a project. It wont take long, in fact, for everyone to dismiss the contrarian as an annoyance. Decision makers must be careful to apply red teaming judiciously. Among other factors, timing is especially important. Establishing a red team too early can lead to aimless dithering establishing it too late can trigger fierce and justifiable resistance. Even so, the adage better late than never sometimes applies. If one adage always applies to red teaming, it is one size doesnt fit all. It is also important to consider and value the perspective of all client stakeholders.